Sorry, Donella Meadows

Pretending things are complicated is a great way to make money. It’s an old, dirty trick. But it remains painfully widespread.

A mechanic can overcharge clients who don’t know any better. University professors can weasel more grant money by embellishing the difficulty of the problems they work on. Politicians and consultants do the same.

People who use illusions of complexity are abusing trust. In my field, occupational health and safety (OHS), there’s a healthy population of these. Safety consultants make problems vastly more confusing than they need to be. They insist on using precise definitions, “leading indicators”, enterprise systems, and delicate language.

OHS is not rocket science. We know the factors that affect injury and fatality rates. Proper gear, training, working conditions, reporting, etc. Real experts can give you a quick answer.

Same goes elsewhere. Forestry is not rocket science. Transportation is not rocket science. Nutrition is not rocket science.

Making yourself look like a rocket scientist when you’re not is a bad thing to do.

Collective Hypochondria

The prevalence of this problem is unfortunate. And as soon as someone buys into an illusion of complexity, it actually does make things more complex. It’s a collective form of hypochondria.

An organization or group can fall into a vicious cycle, just like someone needlessly worried about their health:

They experience a problem (such as rising worker insurance rates).
They self-diagnose (“our entire system is broken”).
They retain a doctor (a safety consultant or internal hire).
The doctor has an incentive to prescribe, even if nothing is wrong (illusion of complexity).
The underlying problem is completely missed, if it exists at all.

A fear of straight talk is pernicious in OHS and many other places. Sadly, there is a reason for this. If an individual, group, or organization is convinced that they have a problem, they will probably seek out help until they find someone willing to confirm their suspicions.

As a general rule, I think we tend to overcomplicate things. I don’t know why we do it, but there are obvious implications. It absolves us of personal accountability. At the same time, entertaining an illusion of complexity makes us feel smart – we can talk about our problems all day. Complacency follows.

Breaking the Illusion

If you’re getting the sense that things just aren’t that complicated. The best way to break the illusions is to master a craft. Scratch past the surface of something. Look at the data. Get a handful of opinions.

All illusions rely on an audience with a limited perspective. It’s a violation of trust. At a magic show, you sign up for it. When you’re at work or trying to build a community or raise a family, this sort of rhetoric is simply abusive.

I started thinking about illusions of complexity after watching this talk by Scott Galloway. Basically the talk shows a handful of ways that the structure of the American economy – and probably the Canadian one – is increasingly disadvantageous to young people.

The whole talk was interesting. There were some solid points. It isn’t until the end that Scott dropped the term that is the title of this essay. But I think throughout his talk, the way in which he spoke followed a certain protocol.

State your opinion (with candor).
Present your argument.
Provide a solution.

Missing any of these steps allows an illusion to creep into the room. Following all of them is sufficient to force thinking and skin in the game.

By the way, I’m hosting a reading group on protocols starting next Thursday. You can find more details and sign up here.

Blundercheck

Illusions of Complexity